A weak or fractured European Union is a serious geopolitical setback for the United States. Rather, we here in the United States ought to be worried about Europe and the centrifugal forces that seem to inexorably be pulling apart our closest pool of allies in the world. We should not be afraid of Russian strength, but rather of Russian weakness - because they still possess a powerful military, the will to use it, and over 7,000 nuclear weapons (which they mention frequently, as if to remind us of their existence).įrankly, we should not lay awake at night worried about Russia. Coupled with declining demographics, a significant alcohol and drug problem, falling life expectancy, an economy dependent on commodities, and a lack of transparent democracy, Russia has a handful of difficult challenges - although there has been some modest demographic improvement of late. Fortunately, we are not back there.īut let us be realistic in the assessment of Moscow’s messaging in Munich: this is a regime under significant internal economic pressure, resulting from a combination of low oil prices and sanctions. There was virtually no dialogue or cooperation between the Soviet Union and the NATO alliance. I am old enough to remember the Cold War - it featured millions of troops on the Fulda Gap in Europe, ready to attack each other two huge battle fleets all around the world chasing each other in a massive Hunt for Red October world and a couple of enormous nuclear arsenals on a hair-trigger alert poised to destroy the world. Let’s begin with a reality check: we are not in a new Cold War. The comments came across to many as a cri de coeur on the part of the Russians that if things don’t start going their way (lift the sanctions, let Assad dominate Syria, show us the deep respect we crave) then this new Cold War will become a new normal. With all due respect, most non-Russians here didn’t hear a conciliatory tone instead, they heard a not-so-veiled threat. In Munich this year, many of my Russian friends and colleagues were quick to say, “What he really means is that we need to be careful that we don’t end up in a Cold War.” In other words, it’s a friendly cautionary note as we continue to levy sanctions on Russia for their illegal invasion of Ukraine and blatant annexation of Crimea. Hardly a comforting memory to surface at a security conference. For those who need a quick refresher, 1962 was the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war. In a long and somewhat rambling speech, his key sound bite was actually quite jarring: We are in a new Cold War, and that this year, 2016, reminded him of 1962 (never mind that he was not born then). He was clearly sent on a mission to provide the West (Europe, the United States, and NATO) with a view from Moscow. Most remember former President Medvedev from a few years ago, when he led the Russian Federation with a more congenial face than that presented by current President Vladimir Putin. The forum has been around for decades, but this year, over an unseasonably warm weekend, the most dramatic speech was about the cold: as in the Cold War, by Russian Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev. Every year, the security glitterati of the world gather in Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference.
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